STATE OF NEW YORK DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SERVICE THREE EMPIRE STATE PLAZA, ALBANY, NY 12223-1350 Internet Address: http://www.dps.state.ny.us PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION MAUREEN O. HELMER LAWRENCE G. MALONE Chairman General Counsel JANET HAND DEIXLER Secretary THOMAS J. DUNLEAVY JAMES D. BENNETT LEONARD A. WEISS NEAL N. GALVIN June 19, 2000 Hon. Gerald L. Lynch Administrative Law Judge Department of Public Service Three Empire State Plaza Albany, New York 12223-1350 Re:Case 96-E-0891 - In the Matter of New York State Electric & Gas Corporation's Plans For Electric Rate/Restructuring Pursuant to Opinion No. 96-12. EXPEDITED PHASE. Dear Judge Lynch: In the Notice issued June 7, 2000 in the captioned proceeding, parties were invited to comment on proposed procedures for an expedited process to review New York State Electric & Gas Corporation's (NYSEG) retail access back-out credit of 3.71 per kWh. Parties were also asked to set forth substantive proposals on seasonally shaping or otherwise restructuring the back-out credit and methods for determining if market prices exceed the level of the back-out credit. Staff believes the proposed procedures are properly tailored to achieve the objectives identified in the Order Denying Motion and Instituting Further Proceedings issued May 26, 2000 in this proceeding. While Staff is interested in proposals other parties may make on seasonally shaping or restructuring the back-out credit, Staff at this time does not have proposals of its own to offer. Staff believes that it is important to develop a method for determining if market prices exceed the level of the back-out credit. Once the Gross Revenue Tax (GRT) adder is subtracted from the 3.71 per kWh credit, it is reduced to an effective level of 3.56 per kWh, on an average annual basis. Short-term market prices have exceeded this level for some hours, and the credit may be exceeded eventually on an average semi-annual or annual basis. Moreover, the filings underlying the Order Denying Motion demonstrate that disputes over the level of market price can be expected in the future. Determining market price, however, is not easily achievable. When the Commission reserved the right to revisit the back-out credit if market prices rose above the level of the credit, it was thought that a fully functional electric generation market would be in place by this time. Some features of a fully functional market, however, are still lacking. There is no meaningful futures trading in New York wholesale generation markets. Moreover, the day ahead and real time markets managed by the New York Independent System Operator (ISO) are immature. They have been marked by erratic behavior in prices, problems with market structure, and significant after- the-fact adjustments. Consequently, at this time, there is no one source that may be relied upon for market price data that may be compared to the level of the back-out credit. Price data, however, may be gleaned from a variety of sources. Even though day ahead and real time ISO market price data may not be fully reliable, historic data from those markets may provide some guidance on price trends. Trading has also developed in forward contracts, usually structured as contracts for differences (CFD) between ISO prices and prices selected by the parties. Although not transparent and too thinly traded to be completely reliable, forward contracts and CFD prices, where available, may provide another source of information. These prices can be obtained from various brokers and information services, most often for a fee; issues related to selection of a source or sources and confidentiality of the information would have to be addressed. Finally, load-serving entities enter into bilateral contracts with generators, often for significant periods of time. Currently, the ISO recognizes, two capability periods -- winter, running from November 1 through April 30, and summer, running roughly from May 1 through October 31. Because capacity is often sold by capability period, bilateral contracts also often run for a capability period. While the prices in these two-party contracts are generally confidential, they are another potential source of information for arriving at a market price comparison. As a result, three types of data could be accumulated. Historic ISO market data could be assessed on a monthly basis, on a peak, off-peak, and average basis. Forward CFD prices could also be accumulated, on a monthly basis, and sorted into appropriate time periods. Finally, NYSEG could provide periodically, on a confidential basis, prices from bilateral contracts it enters into. Other sources of bilateral contract information also could be explored. From these sources, a picture of future electric prices could be developed. Staff would monitor the various pieces of pricing information and translate them into average numbers. Staff could then recommend that further proceedings be instituted when it appears that market prices will exceed the 3.56 level of the back-out credit for a significant period of time. Staff welcomes other parties' comments on this proposal and invites suggestions for refining the process to arrive at timely and reliable results. Very truly yours, Leonard Van Ryn Staff Counsel cc: Active Parties via fax